Tariffs "Slammed the Brakes," LME Copper Closed Higher Overnight While SHFE Copper Slightly Declined [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

Published: Apr 10, 2025 08:41

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SMM April 10 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $8,630/mt, initially dipped slightly and touched a low of $8,489.5/mt, then consolidated during the session, surged sharply near the end and touched a high of $8,974/mt, finally closed at $8,897/mt, up 3.6%, with trading volume at 36,000 lots and open interest at 301,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2505 contract opened at 71,790 yuan/mt and touched a low of 71,690 yuan/mt, then surged sharply and touched a high of 73,030 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound during the session, consolidated near the end, and finally closed at 72,490 yuan/mt, down 0.01%, with trading volume at 78,000 lots and open interest at 153,000 lots. Macro-wise, the pace of global economic recovery remains uncertain recently, US economic data has been mixed, and market expectations for the US Fed's monetary policy direction are complex. The "reciprocal" tariffs previously announced by Trump were originally scheduled to take effect at 00:01 EST on Wednesday, but were suspended less than 13 hours after taking effect. Trump said he had approved a 90-day suspension for related countries, which applies to reciprocal tariffs, during which general tariffs will be reduced to 10%, and the suspension takes effect immediately. This move greatly alleviated market concerns about the escalation of trade frictions, and as a result, US stocks surged and copper prices stopped falling. Fundamental-wise, supply side, the import profit/loss of SHFE copper for the current month showed a slight loss again, and the tight arrival of imported copper has limited the domestic supply. Demand side, although downstream buying is active, due to the low copper prices and tariff factors, downstream has bearish expectations and is not in a hurry to purchase raw materials, suppressing transaction prices. Price-wise, although macro headwinds eased last night and copper prices stopped falling, considering that the tight supply situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and downstream sentiment remains cautious on the demand side, copper prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend today, with both upward momentum and downward pressure relatively limited.

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